Can Gaza Be Rebuilt After Devastation?

The Arab League has unveiled a comprehensive plan aimed at rebuilding the Gaza Strip, which has faced significant destruction due to ongoing military conflicts with Israel. However, the success of this initiative remains uncertain due to potential opposition from both Israel and the United States, along with internal divisions in the region.

During a recent Emergency Arab League Summit held in Cairo, leaders unanimously endorsed Egypt's reconstruction proposal for Gaza. On March 4, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi outlined a five-year plan that calls for an investment of $53 billion (€50.5 billion) dedicated to restoring the area’s infrastructure. A key aspect of this plan is to ensure that the current population of Gaza is not forcibly relocated.

This approach sharply contrasts with a previous proposal made by former US President Donald Trump, which suggested turning Gaza’s coastline into a so-called “Middle Eastern Riviera” by relocating its residents to neighboring Arab countries. This idea was met with strong backlash from Arab leaders, who viewed it as a threat to Palestinian rights.

At the summit, President el-Sisi highlighted that lasting peace in the region cannot be achieved without establishing a fully sovereign Palestinian state. He expressed hope that the United States might engage in resolving the conflict, despite differing views. He stated, "Peace cannot be imposed by force. It must be built on justice and the rights of nations."

A detailed report assessing the damage inflicted on Gaza outlines two types of costs: physical damage to infrastructure and economic and social losses resulting from the conflict. It estimates that the total damage amounts to $29.9 billion, with losses reaching $19.1 billion.

The housing sector has suffered the most, with damages amounting to $15.8 billion, representing 53% of the total destruction. The conflict has left about 30,000 residential buildings completely destroyed and 58,500 partially damaged.

Satellite images reveal extensive destruction in Gaza's infrastructure, including 1,190 kilometers of damaged roads. Of these, 415 kilometers are severely affected, and an additional 1,440 kilometers require significant repairs. The health sector has also faced damage of approximately $1.3 billion, with losses around $6.3 billion. Almost half of Gaza's hospitals have been completely destroyed, further complicating medical care for the local population.

Schools have also been impacted, with damages totaling $874 million and losses equaling $3.2 billion. Roughly 88% of schools have been destroyed, with those still standing being used as shelters for displaced families. Additionally, 51 university buildings have been reduced to rubble.

The trade and industrial sectors report damages of $5.9 billion and losses of $2.2 billion. The transportation sector has seen $2.5 billion in damages and associated losses of $377 million. Water and sanitation infrastructure has been affected with $1.5 billion in damages and losses of $64 million. Lastly, the energy sector has incurred $494 million in damages.

The reconstruction plan indicates a necessity for $53 billion for full restoration, with an initial $3 billion allocated for early recovery in the first six months. Significant funding is earmarked for housing ($15.2 billion), healthcare, trade, and industry (both $6.9 billion), road infrastructure ($2.45 billion), and energy ($1.5 billion). Education restoration will require $3.8 billion, while agriculture and social protection will need $4.2 billion each. The transportation sector and water supply and sanitation systems will require $2.9 billion and $2.7 billion, respectively.

The plan envisions a four-step process for debris removal, disposal of unexploded ordnance, recycling, and reconstruction, aiming for full completion by 2030. The first phase includes clearing debris and preparing land for temporary housing for approximately 1.2 million people.

The subsequent phases entail constructing new housing units, restoring essential services, and developing agricultural land. The final phase focuses on further housing construction, establishing commercial infrastructure, and creating jobs for the local population.

The proposal stresses the necessity of a two-state solution while emphasizing the importance of rebuilding Gaza respectfully, without forced displacement of its residents. It also notes that Gaza remains an integral part of Palestinian territories, and any geographical divisions would only stir further instability.

To support governance during the reconstruction, a temporary administrative committee will be established, with the goal of paving the way for the Palestinian National Authority's return to govern Gaza within six months. International support will be crucial for the success of this interim governance.

For maintaining security in Gaza, Egypt and Jordan are working on a training program for Palestinian police forces, aiming to ensure political and financial backing from both local and international partners. Moreover, it has been suggested that the UN Security Council consider deploying peacekeeping forces in the Palestinian territories, including Gaza.

The Arab reconstruction plan calls for an end to unilateral actions such as Israeli settlements, home demolitions, and military operations. It underscores the need to respect the historical and legal statuses of sacred sites. The document concludes with a call for a unified political framework to support the proposed measures and ensure their successful implementation.

Despite the soundness of the proposed plan, significant challenges loom. A critical question is who will lead Gaza post-conflict. Historically, Hamas has rejected external interventions, leading to uncertainty about the transition of power in Gaza.

However, the plan's clarity on financing and governance structures remains limited, casting doubt on its execution. The current fragmentation among Palestinian elites and factions creates further complications.

Internationally, there has been support from the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, who hailed the Arab-led plan as a viable route for Gaza’s reconstruction. However, resistance from Israel and the US poses a significant obstacle, raising questions about the plan's feasibility.

The Trump administration, aligned with Israel's current government, is unlikely to support this initiative, revealing a widening gap between US and European approaches to the Palestinian issue.

Ultimately, the proposed reconstruction plan, while appealing in theory, may struggle against the competing interests of major powers and Israel's reluctance to adapt. The risk remains that it may end up like the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, gathering dust rather than leading to meaningful progress.

Analyzing the situation from a broader geopolitical perspective, the Trump-Netanyahu alliance may work to marginalize the Palestinian question, putting additional strain on regional stability and potentially igniting a larger conflict. As these events unfold, the hope for peace and relief for Gaza's civilians may appear increasingly distant.

Gaza, Reconstruction, ArabLeague