Amgen Prepares for Q3 Earnings Report: Key Expectations

Amgen (AMGN) is set to announce its third-quarter 2024 earnings on October 30, following the market close. In the previous quarter, the company surpassed earnings projections by 0.81%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipates sales and earnings of $8.51 billion and $5.11 per share, respectively.

What to Watch for Amgen

Amgen's performance is likely to benefit from substantial volume growth in key products such as Evenity, Repatha, Prolia, and Blincyto. However, the company is expected to face challenges due to price declines across many products, driven by increased rebates intended to broaden patient access.

According to estimates, sales for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity, and Blincyto are projected at $1.11 billion, $523 million, $406 million, and $274 million, respectively. Our specific projections for these products are slightly lower, at $1.09 billion for Prolia, $502 million for Repatha, $381.9 million for Evenity, and $272.7 million for Blincyto.

Moreover, sales of newer therapies like Tezspire and Tavneos are predicted to contribute positively to revenue growth, facilitated by an increase in new patient volumes. The self-administered, pre-filled pen formulation of Tezspire is expected to enhance its sales further.

Sales estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos stand at $257.6 million and $91.4 million, respectively. Additionally, Imdelltra (tarlatamab), which secured approval for advanced small cell lung cancer in May 2024, is expected to see higher sales than the $12 million recorded in the previous quarter.

On the contrary, sales of Enbrel are anticipated to decline due to stagnant volume growth and decreasing prices. Furthermore, Otezla sales were weak in the first two quarters of the year, and it remains uncertain if there has been any recovery in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $563 million, while our estimate is slightly higher at $588 million. For Enbrel, the Zacks estimate is $923 million, compared to our estimate of $920.1 million.

Additionally, the recent acquisition of Horizon is expected to boost sales of Tepezza, Krystexxa, and Uplizna. However, lower revenues from oncology biosimilars—including Kanjinti and Mvasi—and established legacy products may negatively impact overall sales.

In the latter half of 2024, there’s an expectation of rising research and development costs, while operating margins could dip below the figures reported in the first half of the year. Specifically, the operating margins for the third quarter may fall short of those seen in the second quarter. Overall adjusted costs in Q3 are expected to rise at a pace similar to that of the first and second quarters.

Investors will also be keen on updates regarding Amgen’s significant pipeline candidate, MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), which is a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor under development for obesity, a rapidly growing field.

Amgen's Recent Earnings Performance

Amgen has demonstrated a consistent track record, exceeding earnings estimates in all of the last four quarters, accumulating an average earnings surprise of 3.47% over this period.

So far in 2024, Amgen's stock has risen by 11%, contrasting with a 3.1% decline observed within the broader industry.

Earnings Predictions for Amgen

Our analytical model does not conclusively signal an earnings beat for Amgen this quarter. Typically, a combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold) enhances the chances of an earnings beat, but this is not the case currently.

Earnings ESP: Currently, Amgen’s Earnings ESP stands at -1.07%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is $5.11 per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is slightly lower at $5.05 per share.

Zacks Rank: Amgen holds a Zacks Rank of #3.

Other Stocks Worth Considering

Several drug and biotech stocks show a favorable setup for an earnings beat this quarter:

Pfizer (PFE) boasts an Earnings ESP of +2.68% and a Zacks Rank of #3. The stock has gained 0.1% year-to-date and has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, averaging a remarkable earnings surprise of 69.82%. Pfizer's third-quarter results are slated for release on October 29.

Regeneron (REGN) also presents good odds with an Earnings ESP of +2.90% and a Zacks Rank of #3. With a 9.6% rise in its stock price this year, Regeneron has beaten estimates in three out of the last four quarters, averaging a 6.01% earnings surprise. REGN is set to announce its third-quarter earnings on October 31.

Biogen (BIIB) has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank of #3. Despite a 28.2% drop in its stock price this year, Biogen has exceeded earnings expectations in three of its last four quarters, although it has faced an average earnings surprise of -10.25%. Biogen's third-quarter earnings will be announced on October 30.

Earnings, Amgen, Biotech